Is South Sudan a Failed State Waiting to Happen

 

There was widespread relief that the Referendum last month went off peacefully. The fact that the Khartoum regime did not resist the last pledge of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), ending five decades of civil war between north and south, was an indication the world could be welcoming its newest country by the summer. On 7th February 2011, the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission announced  that 98.83% of the voters had backed independence and publically accepted the outcome.

The country faces three major issues that threaten the future of what could be the newest state in the world; and there is every danger of a failed state outcome unless the international and African communities act decisively and in unison to alleviate them.
The first issue is the oil fields. In the event of secession, and assuming North Sudan upholds The Hague’s arbitration ruling over the disputed border in the Abayei area, then some 80% of the oil fields will be in the south, with the only outlet for export being Port of Sudan in the north. Oil is the resource that threatens the stability of the north and the south once the people of the south secede.

Secondly is the internal division between the disparate tribes in the black Christian south, an aspect of its heritage that remains a marked distinction to the predominantly Muslim north. South Sudan looks to neighbouring East African countries, long standing allies such as Kenya and Uganda, whereas the Khartoum-led north looks to the Middle East nations for trade and political support. These southern divisions were manifested by in-fighting within the leadership of the Southern People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) during the civil war that nearly brought defeat from within. Today the tensions and triggers for disunity remain.

The last issue concerns the international community. Since peace in 2005 the south has been dependent on aid agencies. There is no stimulus to establishing a regulatory regime or the mechanisms for a domestic capital market. Until the domestic private sector is incentivised, and the precedents and incentives for essential foreign direct investment are forthcoming then the country will be at the mercy of aid agencies, along with the inherent corruption, that in the long term will do nothing to fuel the engine of a new state that needs to stand on its own feet.

 

Posted date 14-02-2011


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